Recent polling data has been released this week which points to a hung Parliament if an election was held immediately.

The latest MORI polling, when averaged with all the other recent major pollsters’ data, predicts a Conservative minority government. This would leave David Cameron some 12 seats short of a working majority in the House, and greatly increase Gordon Brown’s chances of remaining in Number 10 for a little while longer.

Why is this a big deal? Precedent shows that if the figures were to be translated into reality, Brown would be given the first chance to form a coalition government. Constitutional convention dictates that Brown would be Prime Minister until after adequate time he resigns and informs the Queen that a government cannot be formed under his authority. This could seem unfair to the Conservatives who would actually have more seats than Labour, but it’s just one of those peculiarities of the UK Parliamentary system.

Some could be forgiven for not understanding what the excitement is about, and many people are simply apathetic towards Parliamentary procedure. However constitutional lawyers and academics, such as Professor Peter Hennessey (Queen Mary, UL), have pointed out that there will be astonishment in the general public when Cameron cannot form a government even with the most MPs for as long as a couple of weeks after the general election. Even the Guardian missed the point when referring to a hung parliament poll; they predicted that Cameron would be at Buckingham Palace the morning after the election ‘kissing the Queen’s hand’. That’s simply not true – it would be Brown meeting the Queen and being given time to form a working majority. Brown would remain PM until he had exhausted all negotiation with Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats, and the Palace would probably give Brown 1-2 weeks to negotiate. This happened before in 1974 when Edward Heath, the incumbent PM, spent nearly a week trying to negotiate a coalition until he resigned as Prime Minister and Harold Wilson was given the chance to form a minority Labour government.

This possible eventuality seems lost on everyone apart from one man: Gordon Brown. The one precondition demanded by the Liberal Democrats for a coalition is a referendum on voting reform. The Conservatives have flirted with the idea, but the Labour Party passed a motion from Brown at conference supporting a referendum. This demonstration by Brown was aimed at attracting the rank and file Lib Dem’s, in preparation for when he needs to negotiate his way back into Number 10 post-election.

When the election comes, and if there’s a hung parliament, don’t be surprised when political pundits on the 24 hour news channels look bemused and confused by what’s going on. They’ll be diving into old constitutional history books when the traditional Friday morning removal van doesn’t arrive and Gordon’s in the green Jag being driven down the Mall.

For more information on political polling go to http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog